2024 Forecast Data Dictionary
The data dictionary includes all types of data utilised across various models, indicating whether the datapoint is included in each model. It also provides a description of each data point, explaining its purpose and role in the modeling
| Name | House | Senate | President | Factor Category | Description | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GOP Win | T | T | F | Structural | Response variable, boolean indicating if republican won | Historical election results |
Democrat Gender | T | T | F | Candidate Traits | Gender of Democratic candidate | Database on Ideology, Money in Politics, and Elections |
Democrat Ideology Score | T | T | F | Candidate Traits | Ideal point estimate of Democratic candidate ideology based on campaign finance records (positive values are more conservative, negative values are more liberal; the further away from 0 a value is, the more extreme their ideology) | Database on Ideology, Money in Politics, and Elections |
Freshman Incumbent | T | F | F | Candidate Traits | 0 = not freshman, 1 = freshman elected previous general election, 2 = freshman elected in special election more than 1 year earlier, 3 = freshmen elected in a special election during election year, 9 = seat not defended by major party incumbent | Historical election results |
Republican Gender | T | T | F | Candidate Traits | Gender of GOP candidate | Database on Ideology, Money in Politics, and Elections |
Republican Ideology Score | T | T | F | Candidate Traits | Ideal point estimate of Republican candidate ideology based on campaign finance records (positive values are more conservative, negative values are more liberal; the further away from 0 a value is, the more extreme their ideology) | Database on Ideology, Money in Politics, and Elections |
3 Month Net Change in Weekly Wage | T | T | F | Economic Factors | Net change in weekly wage over previous 3 months | Federal Reserve Economic Data |
3 Month Percent Change in Weekly Wage | T | T | F | Economic Factors | Percent change in weekly wage over previous 3 months | Federal Reserve Economic Data |
Average Weekly Wage | T | T | F | Economic Factors | Average weekly wage in the previous quarter | Federal Reserve Economic Data |
Geo Class | T | T | F | Structural | Description of how rural/urban the district is (e.g. "quite_rural", "extremely_urban", "semi_urban_rural") | US Census Bureau |
Pop Density | T | F | T | Structural | Population density of a cd/state | US Census Bureau |
Unemployment Rate | T | T | T | Economic Factors | Unemployment rate | Federal Reserve Economic Data |
Unemployment Rate Net Change | T | T | F | Economic Factors | State unemployment rate net change over year | Federal Reserve Economic Data |
Unemployment Rate Percent Change | T | T | F | Economic Factors | State unemployment rate percent change over year | Federal Reserve Economic Data |
Urban Population Percent | T | T | F | Structural | Percent urban population | US Census Bureau |
CFG Involvement | T | T | T | Outside Financials | CGF spent money T/F | Federal Election Commission |
CFG Percent | T | T | T | Outside Financials | Percent of spending from CFG | Federal Election Commission |
CLF Involvement | T | F | T | Outside Financials | CLF spent money T/F | Federal Election Commission |
CLF Percent | T | F | T | Outside Financials | Percent of spending from CLF | Federal Election Commission |
DCCC Involvement | T | F | F | Outside Financials | DCCC spent money T/F | Federal Election Commission |
DCCC Percent | T | F | F | Outside Financials | Percent of spending from DCCC | Federal Election Commission |
Dem CFG Oppose | T | T | T | Outside Financials | Amount spent by CFG opposing Democrat | Federal Election Commission |
Dem CFG Support | T | T | T | Outside Financials | Amount spent by CFG supporting Democrat | Federal Election Commission |
Dem CLF Oppose | T | F | T | Outside Financials | Amount spent by CLF opposing Democrat | Federal Election Commission |
Dem CLF Support | T | F | T | Outside Financials | Amount spent by CLF supporting Democrat | Federal Election Commission |
Dem DCCC Oppose | T | F | F | Outside Financials | Amount spent by DCCC opposing Democrat | Federal Election Commission |
Dem DCCC Support | T | F | F | Outside Financials | Amount spent by DCCC supporting Democrat | Federal Election Commission |
Dem Debts Or Loans Owed By | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Democratic debts or loans owed by committee | Federal Election Commission |
Dem Debts Or Loans Owed To | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Democratic debts or loans owed to committee | Federal Election Commission |
Dem Ending Cash On Hand | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Democratic ending cash on hand | Federal Election Commission |
Dem HMP Oppose | T | F | T | Outside Financials | Amount spent by HMP opposing Democrat | Federal Election Commission |
Dem HMP Support | T | F | T | Outside Financials | Amount spent by HMP supporting Democrat | Federal Election Commission |
Dem Ind Expenditure Oppose | T | T | T | Outside Financials | Independent Expenditures to oppose democratic candidate | Federal Election Commission |
Dem Ind Expenditure Percent | T | T | T | Outside Financials | Democratic percent of independent Expenditures | Federal Election Commission |
Dem Ind Expenditure Support | T | T | T | Outside Financials | Independent Expenditures to support democratic candidate | Federal Election Commission |
Dem Individual Refunds | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Democratic individual refunds | Federal Election Commission |
Dem Itemized Individual Contributions | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Democratic itemized individual contributions | Federal Election Commission |
Dem Loans Made By Candidate | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Democratic loans made by candidate | Federal Election Commission |
Dem NAOR Oppose | T | T | T | Outside Financials | Amount spent by NAOR opposing Democrat | Federal Election Commission |
Dem NAOR Support | T | T | T | Outside Financials | Amount spent by NAOR supporting Democrat | Federal Election Commission |
Dem NRCC Oppose | T | F | F | Outside Financials | Amount spent by NRCC opposing Democrat | Federal Election Commission |
Dem NRCC Support | T | F | F | Outside Financials | Amount spent by NRCC supporting Democrat | Federal Election Commission |
Dem Offsets To Operating Expenditures | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Democratic offsets to operating Expenditures | Federal Election Commission |
Dem Operating Expenditures | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Democratic operating Expenditures | Federal Election Commission |
Dem Other Committee Refunds | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Democratic other committee refunds | Federal Election Commission |
Dem Other Disbursements | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Democratic other disbursements | Federal Election Commission |
Dem Other Loan Repayments | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Democratic other loan repayments | Federal Election Commission |
Dem Other Loans | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Democratic other loans | Federal Election Commission |
Dem Other Receipts | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Democratic other receipts | Federal Election Commission |
Dem Outspend | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Whether the democratic candidate outspent the republican | Federal Election Commission |
Dem Political Party Refunds | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Democratic Party refunds | Federal Election Commission |
Dem Quarterly Itemized | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Democratic quarterly itemized contributions | Federal Election Commission |
Dem Quarterly Unitemized | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Democratic quarterly unitemized contributions | Federal Election Commission |
Dem Raised | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Democratic total raised | Federal Election Commission |
Dem Spent | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Democratic total spent | Federal Election Commission |
Dem Spent Ind Support Oppose | T | T | T | Candidate Financials | Democratic total spent+Democratic independent Expenditures supporting+Republican independent Expenditures opposing | Federal Election Commission |
Dem Total Contribution Refunds | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Democratic total contributions and refunds | Federal Election Commission |
Dem Total Contributions | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Democratic total contributions | Federal Election Commission |
Dem Total Individual Contributions | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Democratic total individual contributions | Federal Election Commission |
Dem Total Loan Repayments | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Democratic total loan repayments | Federal Election Commission |
Dem Total Loans Received | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Democratic total loans received | Federal Election Commission |
Dem Transfers From Other Authorized Committees | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Democratic transfers from other authorized committees | Federal Election Commission |
Dem Transfers To Other Authorized Committees | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Democratic transfers to other authorized committees | Federal Election Commission |
Dem Unitemized Individual Contributions | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Democratic unitemized individual contributions | Federal Election Commission |
Democratic candidate contributions | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Democratic candidate contributions | Federal Election Commission |
Democratic loan repayments | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Democratic loan repayments | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Candidate Contributions | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Republican candidate contributions | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Candidate Contributions Score | F | T | T | Candidate Financials | Difference between Republican and Democratic candidate contributions (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0) | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Candidate Loan Repayments | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Republican loan repayments | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Candidate Loan Repayments Score | F | T | T | Candidate Financials | Difference between Republican and Democratic candidate loan repayments (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0) | Federal Election Commission |
GOP CFG Oppose | T | T | T | Outside Financials | Amount spent by CFG opposing Republican | Federal Election Commission |
GOP CFG Support | T | T | T | Outside Financials | Amount spent by CFG supporting Republican | Federal Election Commission |
GOP CLF Oppose | T | F | T | Outside Financials | Amount spent by CLF opposing Republican | Federal Election Commission |
GOP CLF Support | T | F | T | Outside Financials | Amount spent by CLF supporting Republican | Federal Election Commission |
GOP DCCC Oppose | T | F | F | Outside Financials | Amount spent by DCCC opposing Republican | Federal Election Commission |
GOP DCCC Support | T | F | F | Outside Financials | Amount spent by DCCC supporting Republican | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Debts Or Loans Owed By | T | T | T | Candidate Financials | Republican debts or loans owed by committee | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Debts Or Loans Owed To | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Republican debts or loans owed to committee | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Ending Cash On Hand | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Republican ending cash on hand | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Ending Cash On Hand Score | F | T | T | Candidate Financials | Difference between Republican and Democratic ending cash on hand (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0) | Federal Election Commission |
GOP HMP Oppose | T | F | T | Outside Financials | Amount spent by HMP opposing Republican | Federal Election Commission |
GOP HMP Support | T | F | T | Outside Financials | Amount spent by HMP supporting Republican | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Ind Expenditure Oppose | T | T | T | Outside Financials | Independent Expenditures to oppose republican candidate | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Ind Expenditure Percent | T | T | T | Outside Financials | Republican percent of independent Expenditures | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Ind Expenditure Support | T | T | T | Outside Financials | Independent Expenditures to support republican candidate | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Individual Refunds | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Republican individual refunds | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Individual Refunds Score | F | T | T | Candidate Financials | Difference between Republican and Democratic individual refunds (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0) | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Itemized Individual Contributions | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Republican itemized individual contributions | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Itemized Individual Contributions Score | F | T | T | Candidate Financials | Difference between Republican and Democratic itemized individual contributions (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0) | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Loans Made By Candidate | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Republican loans made by candidate | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Loans Made By Candidate Score | F | T | T | Candidate Financials | Difference between Republican and Democratic loans made by candidate (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0) | Federal Election Commission |
GOP NAOR Oppose | T | T | T | Outside Financials | Amount spent by NAOR opposing Republican | Federal Election Commission |
GOP NAOR Support | T | T | T | Outside Financials | Amount spent by NAOR supporting Republican | Federal Election Commission |
GOP NRCC Oppose | T | F | F | Outside Financials | Amount spent by NRCC opposing Republican | Federal Election Commission |
GOP NRCC Support | T | F | F | Outside Financials | Amount spent by NRCC supporting Republican | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Offsets To Operating Expenditures | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Republican offsets to operating Expenditures | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Offsets To Operating Expenditures Score | F | T | T | Candidate Financials | Difference between Republican and Democratic offsets to operating Expenditures (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0) | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Operating Expenditures | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Republican operating Expenditures | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Operating Expenditures Score | F | T | T | Candidate Financials | Difference between Republican and Democratic operating Expenditures (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0) | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Other Committee Refunds | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Republican other committee refunds | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Other Committee Refunds Score | F | T | T | Candidate Financials | Difference between Republican and Democratic other committee refunds (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0) | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Other Disbursements | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Republican other disbursements | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Other Disbursements Score | F | T | T | Candidate Financials | Difference between Republican and Democratic other disbursements (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0) | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Other Loan Repayments | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Republican other loan repayments | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Other Loan Repayments Score | F | T | T | Candidate Financials | Difference between Republican and Democratic other loan repayments (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0) | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Other Loans | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Republican other loans | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Other Loans Score | F | T | T | Candidate Financials | Difference between Republican and Democratic other loans (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0) | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Other Receipts | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Republican other receipts | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Other Receipts Score | F | T | T | Candidate Financials | Difference between Republican and Democratic other receipts (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0) | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Political Party Refunds | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Republican Party refunds | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Political Party Refunds Score | F | T | T | Candidate Financials | Difference between Republican and Democratic party refunds (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0) | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Quarterly Itemized | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Republican quarterly itemized contributions | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Quarterly Itemized Score | F | T | T | Candidate Financials | Difference between Republican and Democratic quarterly itemized contributions (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0) | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Quarterly Unitemized | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Republican quarterly unitemized contributions | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Quarterly Unitemized Score | F | T | T | Candidate Financials | Difference between Republican and Democratic quarterly unitemized contributions (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0) | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Raised | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Republican total raised | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Raised Score | T | T | T | Candidate Financials | Difference between Republican and Democratic total raised (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0) | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Spent | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Republican total spent | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Spent Ind Support Oppose | T | T | T | Candidate Financials | Republican total spent+Republican independent Expenditures supporting+Democratic independent Expenditures opposing | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Spent Score | T | T | T | Candidate Financials | Difference between Republican and Democratic total spent (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0) | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Total Contribution Refunds | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Republican total contributions and refunds | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Total Contribution Refunds Score | F | T | T | Candidate Financials | Difference between Republican and Democratic total contributions and refunds (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0) | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Total Contributions | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Republican total contributions | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Total Contributions Score | F | T | T | Candidate Financials | Difference between Republican and Democratic total contributions (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0) | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Total Individual Contributions | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Republican total individual contributions | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Total Individual Contributions Score | F | T | T | Candidate Financials | Difference between Republican and Democratic total individual contributions (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0) | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Total Loan Repayments | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Republican total loan repayments | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Total Loan Repayments Score | F | T | T | Candidate Financials | Difference between Republican and Democratic total loan repayments (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0) | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Total Loans Received | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Republican total loans received | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Total Loans Received Score | F | T | T | Candidate Financials | Difference between Republican and Democratic total loans received (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0) | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Transfers From Other Authorized Committees | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Republican transfers from other authorized committees | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Transfers From Other Authorized Committees Score | F | T | T | Candidate Financials | Difference between Republican and Democratic transfers from other authorized committees (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0) | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Transfers To Other Authorized Committees | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Republican transfers to other authorized committees | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Transfers To Other Authorized Committees Score | F | T | T | Candidate Financials | Difference between Republican and Democratic transfers to other authorized committees (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0) | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Unitemized Individual Contributions | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Republican unitemized individual contributions | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Unitemized Individual Contributions Score | F | T | T | Candidate Financials | Difference between Republican and Democratic unitemized individual contributions (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0) | Federal Election Commission |
HMP Involved | T | F | T | Outside Financials | HMP spent money T/F | Federal Election Commission |
HMP Percent | T | F | T | Outside Financials | Percent of spending from HMP | Federal Election Commission |
NAOR Involved | T | T | T | Outside Financials | NAOR spent money T/F | Federal Election Commission |
NAOR Percent | T | T | T | Outside Financials | Percent of spending from NAOR | Federal Election Commission |
NRCC Involved | T | F | F | Outside Financials | NRCC spent money T/F | Federal Election Commission |
NRCC Percent | T | F | F | Outside Financials | Percent of spending from NRCC | Federal Election Commission |
Over 20 Million | F | T | T | Candidate Financials | Indicates whether 20 million total was spent by all candidates combined | Federal Election Commission |
Over 3 Million | T | F | T | Candidate Financials | Indicates whether 3 million total was spent by all candidates combined | Federal Election Commission |
Total Money in Race | T | T | T | Candidate Financials | Total money spent by GOP and Dem | Federal Election Commission |
Adjusted PVI | T | T | F | Political Environment | PVI+national environment | Calculated in-house |
Dem Last Vote Count | T | F | F | Political Environment | Democratic vote count from previous cycle (same cd) | Historical election results |
Dem Last Vote Percent | T | F | F | Political Environment | Democratic vote percent from previous cycle (same cd) | Historical election results |
Dem Num Opponents | T | T | F | Political Environment | Number of opponents in dem primary | Historical election results |
Dem Pres Net Approve | T | T | F | Political Environment | Net presidential approval (approval rating-disapproval rating) for Democratic Presidents, coded 0 if opposite party controls Presidency | Gallup |
Dem Primary HHI | T | T | F | Political Environment | Herfindahl-Hirschman index (HHI) using vote share distribution in dem primary | Calculated in-house |
Dem Vote Count Last3 | T | T | F | Political Environment | Democratic vote count from previous 3 cycles | Historical election results |
Dem Vote Percent Last3 | T | T | F | Political Environment | Democratic vote percent from previous 3 cycles | Historical election results |
Generic Ballot National Environment | T | T | F | Political Environment | 15 day average of generic congressional ballot of D vs R; positive values favor R, negative values favor D | RealClearPolitics |
GOP Last Vote Count | T | F | F | Political Environment | GOP vote count from previous cycle (same cd) | Historical election results |
GOP Last Vote Percent | T | F | F | Political Environment | GOP vote Percent from previous cycle (same cd) | Historical election results |
GOP Num Opponents | T | T | F | Political Environment | Number of opponents in GOP primary | Historical election results |
GOP Pres Net Approve | T | T | F | Political Environment | Net presidential approval (approval rating-disapproval rating) for Republican Presidents, coded 0 if opposite party controls Presidency | Gallup |
GOP Primary HHI | T | T | F | Political Environment | HHI using vote share distribution in GOP primary | Calculated in-house |
GOP Vote Count Last3 | T | T | F | Political Environment | Republican vote count from previous 3 cycles | Historical election results |
GOP Vote Percent Last3 | T | T | F | Political Environment | Republican vote percent from previous 3 cycles | Historical election results |
Grn Last Vote Percent | T | F | F | Political Environment | Green party vote Percent from previous cycle (same cd) | Historical election results |
Ind Last Vote Percent | T | F | F | Political Environment | Independent party vote Percent from previous cycle (same cd) | Historical election results |
Last D Pres Percent | T | F | F | Political Environment | Democrat\u2019s share of two-party vote, previous election | Historical election results |
Last GOP Percent | F | T | F | Political Environment | Same as "GOP Last Vote Percent" variable, but for the Senate | Historical election results |
Lib Last Vote Percent | T | F | F | Political Environment | Libertarian party vote Percent from previous cycle (same cd) | Historical election results |
Lib Vote Percent Last3 | T | T | F | Political Environment | Libertarian vote percent from previous 3 cycles | Historical election results |
Midterm | F | T | F | Political Environment | Midterm election T/F | Historical election results |
Of Prespty | T | T | F | Political Environment | If GOP candidate is of the president's party | Historical election results |
Of Prespty By Midterm | T | T | F | Political Environment | 1 = GOP candidate is of sitting president's party and it is a midterm election year, 2 = pres party and presidential election year, 3 = not pres party and midterm, 4 = not pres party and pres year | Calculated in-house |
Open Seat | T | T | F | Political Environment | Indicates whether this is an open seat election (current election) | Historical election results |
Pres By Midterm | F | T | F | Political Environment | Gives party of sitting president and indicates whether election cycle is midterm (e.g. "R1" if Republican president and midterm election year; "D0" if Democratic president and not a midterm election year) | Calculated in-house |
Prespty | T | T | F | Political Environment | Party of current president | Historical election results |
Previous Party | T | T | F | Political Environment | Names the party that previously held the seat | Historical election results |
Primary HHI | T | T | F | Political Environment | HHI using primary voters in the dem+GOP primary combined | Calculated in-house |
Redistricted | T | F | F | Political Environment | Indicates redistricting since last election | Calculated in-house |
Turnout Count Last | F | F | F | Political Environment | Total turnout from previous cycle | Historical election results |
Turnout Count Last3 | T | T | F | Political Environment | Total voter turnout for last 3 cycles | Historical election results |
Unopposed Democrat Last Cycle | T | F | F | Political Environment | Whether dem ran unopposed in previous election | Historical election results |
Unopposed Republican Last Cycle | T | F | F | Political Environment | Whether GOP ran unopposed in previous election | Historical election results |
Congressional District or Senate Class | T | T | F | Structural | Congressional District or Senate Class | Historical election results |
Decade | T | F | F | Structural | >2010 or <2010 | Historical election results |
State | T | T | T | Structural | State the election is being held in | Historical election results |
Unopposed Democrat | T | F | F | Structural | Whether dem is unopposed in this election | Historical election results |
Unopposed Republican | T | F | F | Structural | Whether GOP is unopposed in this election | Historical election results |
Year | T | T | T | Structural | Calendar year election occurs within | Historical election results |
Asian Pct | F | F | T | Structural | Asian population percent | US Census Bureau |
Bachelor’s Degree Pct | T | T | T | Structural | Bachelor’s degree percent | US Census Bureau |
Black Pct | F | F | T | Structural | Black population percent | US Census Bureau |
CPI | F | F | T | Economic Factors | Consumer price index | Federal Reserve Economic Data |
D 2 Party Pct | F | F | T | Political Environment | Democratic percentage of two-party vote | Historical election results |
D Candidate Ideology | F | F | T | Candidate Traits | Democratic candidate ideology | Database on Ideology, Money in Politics, and Elections |
D Consecutive Terms | F | F | T | Political Environment | Number of consecutive Democratic terms | Historical election results |
D Home State | F | F | T | Candidate Traits | Home state of Democratic presidential candidate | Historical election results |
D IEM Price | F | F | T | Political Environment | Closing price for Democratic candidate in winner-take-all market on day before election | Iowa Electronic Markets |
D Incumbent Candidate | F | F | T | Candidate Traits | Democratic incumbent running | Historical election results |
D Incumbent Party | F | F | T | Political Environment | Democratic incumbent running | Historical election results |
D Overall Pct | F | F | T | Political Environment | Democratic percentage of overall vote | Historical election results |
D President Net Approval | F | F | T | Political Environment | Net approval rating for Democratic president | The American Presidency Project |
D Primary Margin | F | F | T | Political Environment | Difference in overall primary popular vote percentage between Democratic nominee and closest primary challenger | Historical election results |
D VP Home State | F | F | T | Candidate Traits | Home state of Democratic vice presidential candidate | Historical election results |
D Win | F | F | T | Structural | Democratic win | Historical election results |
Dem Other Committee Contributions | T | F | T | Outside Financials | Democratic other committee contributions | Federal Election Commission |
Dem Party Committee Contributions | T | F | T | Outside Financials | Democratic party committee contributions | Federal Election Commission |
Effective Federal Funds Rate | F | F | T | Economic Factors | Effective Federal Funds Rate | Federal Reserve Economic Data |
GDP | F | F | T | Economic Factors | Gross Domestic Product (GDP) | Federal Reserve Economic Data |
GNP | F | F | T | Economic Factors | Gross National Product (GNP) | Federal Reserve Economic Data |
GOP Debts Or Loans Owed By Score | T | T | T | Candidate Financials | Difference between Republican and Democratic debts or loans owed by committee (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0) | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Debts Or Loans Owed To Score | F | T | T | Candidate Financials | Difference between Republican and Democratic debts or loans owed to committee (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0) | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Other Committee Contributions | T | F | T | Outside Financials | Republican other committee contributions | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Other Committee Contributions Score | F | T | T | Outside Financials | Difference between Republican and Democratic other committee contributions (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0) | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Party Committee Contributions | T | F | T | Outside Financials | Republican party committee contributions | Federal Election Commission |
GOP Party Committee Contributions Score | F | T | T | Outside Financials | Difference between Republican and Democratic party committee contributions (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0) | Federal Election Commission |
Hispanic Pct | F | F | T | Structural | Hispanic population percent | US Census Bureau |
Incumbent | T | T | F | Candidate Traits | 1 = GOP incumbent, 0 = no incumbent, -1 = Dem incumbent | Historical election results |
Index of Consumer Sentiment | F | F | T | Economic Factors | Index of Consumer Sentiment | Federal Reserve Economic Data |
Industrial Production Index | F | F | T | Economic Factors | Industrial Production Index | Federal Reserve Economic Data |
Last D 2 Party Pct | F | F | T | Political Environment | Democratic percentage of two-party vote in previous election | Historical election results |
Last D Overall Pct | F | F | T | Political Environment | Democratic percentage of overall vote in previous election | Historical election results |
Last R 2 Party Pct | F | F | T | Political Environment | Republican percentage of two-party vote in previous election | Historical election results |
Last R Overall Pct | F | F | T | Political Environment | Republican percentage of overall vote in previous election | Historical election results |
Median Age | F | F | T | Structural | Median age | US Census Bureau |
NASDAQ | F | F | T | Economic Factors | NASDAQ Composite | Federal Reserve Economic Data |
Non-Farm Pay | F | F | T | Economic Factors | Nonfarm payrolls | Federal Reserve Economic Data |
Nonhispanic White Pct | T | T | T | Structural | Non-hispanic white population percent | US Census Bureau |
Per Capita Income | F | F | T | Economic Factors | Per capita personal income | Federal Reserve Economic Data |
Personal Consumption Expenditures | F | F | T | Economic Factors | Personal consumption expenditures | Federal Reserve Economic Data |
PVI | T | T | T | Political Environment | Cook Partisan Voting Index (positive values are R+, negative are D+) | Calculated in-house based on Cook formula |
PVI Adjusted Net Approval | F | F | T | Political Environment | PVI minus net approval for Democratic president, plus net approval for Republican president | Calculated in-house |
R 2 Party Pct | F | F | T | Political Environment | Republican percentage of two-party vote | Historical election results |
R Candidate Ideology | F | F | T | Candidate Traits | Republican candidate ideology | Database on Ideology, Money in Politics, and Elections |
R Consecutive Terms | F | F | T | Political Environment | Number of consecutive Republican terms | Historical election results |
R Home State | F | F | T | Candidate Traits | Home state of Republican presidential candidate | Historical election results |
R IEM price | F | F | T | Political Environment | Closing price for Republican candidate in winner-take-all market on day before election | Iowa Electronic Markets |
R Incumbent Candidate | F | F | T | Candidate Traits | Republican incumbent running | Historical election results |
R Incumbent Party | F | F | T | Political Environment | Republican incumbent running | Historical election results |
R Overall Pct | F | F | T | Political Environment | Republican percentage of overall vote | Historical election results |
R President Net Approval | F | F | T | Political Environment | Net approval rating for Republican president | The American Presidency Project |
R Primary Margin | F | F | T | Political Environment | Difference in overall primary popular vote percentage between Republican nominee and closest primary challenger | Historical election results |
R VP Home State | F | F | T | Candidate Traits | Home state of Republican vice presidential candidate | Historical election results |
R Win | F | F | T | Structural | Republican win | Historical election results |
Race ID | T | T | T | Structural | Unique identifier reflecting office, year, state, district/class | |
Real Personal Income | F | F | T | Economic Factors | Real personal income | Federal Reserve Economic Data |
State Ideology | F | F | T | Political Environment | State/district ideology | American Ideology Project |
Urban Pop Density | F | F | T | Structural | Percent of population in urban areas | US Census Bureau |
Name
GOP Win
House
T
Senate
T
President
F
Factor Category
Structural
Description
Response variable, boolean indicating if republican won
Source
Historical election results
Name
Democrat Gender
House
T
Senate
T
President
F
Factor Category
Candidate Traits
Description
Gender of Democratic candidate
Source
Database on Ideology, Money in Politics, and Elections
Name
Democrat Ideology Score
House
T
Senate
T
President
F
Factor Category
Candidate Traits
Description
Ideal point estimate of Democratic candidate ideology based on campaign finance records (positive values are more conservative, negative values are more liberal; the further away from 0 a value is, the more extreme their ideology)
Source
Database on Ideology, Money in Politics, and Elections
Name
Freshman Incumbent
House
T
Senate
F
President
F
Factor Category
Candidate Traits
Description
0 = not freshman, 1 = freshman elected previous general election, 2 = freshman elected in special election more than 1 year earlier, 3 = freshmen elected in a special election during election year, 9 = seat not defended by major party incumbent
Source
Historical election results
Name
Republican Gender
House
T
Senate
T
President
F
Factor Category
Candidate Traits
Description
Gender of GOP candidate
Source
Database on Ideology, Money in Politics, and Elections
Name
Republican Ideology Score
House
T
Senate
T
President
F
Factor Category
Candidate Traits
Description
Ideal point estimate of Republican candidate ideology based on campaign finance records (positive values are more conservative, negative values are more liberal; the further away from 0 a value is, the more extreme their ideology)
Source
Database on Ideology, Money in Politics, and Elections
Name
3 Month Net Change in Weekly Wage
House
T
Senate
T
President
F
Factor Category
Economic Factors
Description
Net change in weekly wage over previous 3 months
Source
Federal Reserve Economic Data
Name
3 Month Percent Change in Weekly Wage
House
T
Senate
T
President
F
Factor Category
Economic Factors
Description
Percent change in weekly wage over previous 3 months
Source
Federal Reserve Economic Data
Name
Average Weekly Wage
House
T
Senate
T
President
F
Factor Category
Economic Factors
Description
Average weekly wage in the previous quarter
Source
Federal Reserve Economic Data
Name
Geo Class
House
T
Senate
T
President
F
Factor Category
Structural
Description
Description of how rural/urban the district is (e.g. "quite_rural", "extremely_urban", "semi_urban_rural")
Source
US Census Bureau
Name
Pop Density
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Structural
Description
Population density of a cd/state
Source
US Census Bureau
Name
Unemployment Rate
House
T
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Economic Factors
Description
Unemployment rate
Source
Federal Reserve Economic Data
Name
Unemployment Rate Net Change
House
T
Senate
T
President
F
Factor Category
Economic Factors
Description
State unemployment rate net change over year
Source
Federal Reserve Economic Data
Name
Unemployment Rate Percent Change
House
T
Senate
T
President
F
Factor Category
Economic Factors
Description
State unemployment rate percent change over year
Source
Federal Reserve Economic Data
Name
Urban Population Percent
House
T
Senate
T
President
F
Factor Category
Structural
Description
Percent urban population
Source
US Census Bureau
Name
CFG Involvement
House
T
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
CGF spent money T/F
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
CFG Percent
House
T
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Percent of spending from CFG
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
CLF Involvement
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
CLF spent money T/F
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
CLF Percent
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Percent of spending from CLF
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
DCCC Involvement
House
T
Senate
F
President
F
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
DCCC spent money T/F
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
DCCC Percent
House
T
Senate
F
President
F
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Percent of spending from DCCC
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem CFG Oppose
House
T
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Amount spent by CFG opposing Democrat
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem CFG Support
House
T
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Amount spent by CFG supporting Democrat
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem CLF Oppose
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Amount spent by CLF opposing Democrat
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem CLF Support
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Amount spent by CLF supporting Democrat
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem DCCC Oppose
House
T
Senate
F
President
F
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Amount spent by DCCC opposing Democrat
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem DCCC Support
House
T
Senate
F
President
F
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Amount spent by DCCC supporting Democrat
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem Debts Or Loans Owed By
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Democratic debts or loans owed by committee
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem Debts Or Loans Owed To
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Democratic debts or loans owed to committee
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem Ending Cash On Hand
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Democratic ending cash on hand
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem HMP Oppose
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Amount spent by HMP opposing Democrat
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem HMP Support
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Amount spent by HMP supporting Democrat
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem Ind Expenditure Oppose
House
T
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Independent Expenditures to oppose democratic candidate
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem Ind Expenditure Percent
House
T
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Democratic percent of independent Expenditures
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem Ind Expenditure Support
House
T
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Independent Expenditures to support democratic candidate
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem Individual Refunds
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Democratic individual refunds
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem Itemized Individual Contributions
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Democratic itemized individual contributions
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem Loans Made By Candidate
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Democratic loans made by candidate
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem NAOR Oppose
House
T
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Amount spent by NAOR opposing Democrat
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem NAOR Support
House
T
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Amount spent by NAOR supporting Democrat
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem NRCC Oppose
House
T
Senate
F
President
F
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Amount spent by NRCC opposing Democrat
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem NRCC Support
House
T
Senate
F
President
F
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Amount spent by NRCC supporting Democrat
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem Offsets To Operating Expenditures
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Democratic offsets to operating Expenditures
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem Operating Expenditures
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Democratic operating Expenditures
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem Other Committee Refunds
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Democratic other committee refunds
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem Other Disbursements
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Democratic other disbursements
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem Other Loan Repayments
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Democratic other loan repayments
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem Other Loans
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Democratic other loans
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem Other Receipts
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Democratic other receipts
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem Outspend
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Whether the democratic candidate outspent the republican
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem Political Party Refunds
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Democratic Party refunds
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem Quarterly Itemized
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Democratic quarterly itemized contributions
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem Quarterly Unitemized
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Democratic quarterly unitemized contributions
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem Raised
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Democratic total raised
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem Spent
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Democratic total spent
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem Spent Ind Support Oppose
House
T
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Democratic total spent+Democratic independent Expenditures supporting+Republican independent Expenditures opposing
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem Total Contribution Refunds
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Democratic total contributions and refunds
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem Total Contributions
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Democratic total contributions
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem Total Individual Contributions
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Democratic total individual contributions
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem Total Loan Repayments
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Democratic total loan repayments
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem Total Loans Received
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Democratic total loans received
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem Transfers From Other Authorized Committees
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Democratic transfers from other authorized committees
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem Transfers To Other Authorized Committees
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Democratic transfers to other authorized committees
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem Unitemized Individual Contributions
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Democratic unitemized individual contributions
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Democratic candidate contributions
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Democratic candidate contributions
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Democratic loan repayments
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Democratic loan repayments
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Candidate Contributions
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Republican candidate contributions
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Candidate Contributions Score
House
F
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Difference between Republican and Democratic candidate contributions (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0)
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Candidate Loan Repayments
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Republican loan repayments
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Candidate Loan Repayments Score
House
F
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Difference between Republican and Democratic candidate loan repayments (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0)
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP CFG Oppose
House
T
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Amount spent by CFG opposing Republican
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP CFG Support
House
T
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Amount spent by CFG supporting Republican
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP CLF Oppose
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Amount spent by CLF opposing Republican
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP CLF Support
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Amount spent by CLF supporting Republican
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP DCCC Oppose
House
T
Senate
F
President
F
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Amount spent by DCCC opposing Republican
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP DCCC Support
House
T
Senate
F
President
F
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Amount spent by DCCC supporting Republican
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Debts Or Loans Owed By
House
T
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Republican debts or loans owed by committee
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Debts Or Loans Owed To
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Republican debts or loans owed to committee
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Ending Cash On Hand
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Republican ending cash on hand
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Ending Cash On Hand Score
House
F
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Difference between Republican and Democratic ending cash on hand (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0)
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP HMP Oppose
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Amount spent by HMP opposing Republican
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP HMP Support
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Amount spent by HMP supporting Republican
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Ind Expenditure Oppose
House
T
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Independent Expenditures to oppose republican candidate
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Ind Expenditure Percent
House
T
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Republican percent of independent Expenditures
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Ind Expenditure Support
House
T
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Independent Expenditures to support republican candidate
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Individual Refunds
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Republican individual refunds
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Individual Refunds Score
House
F
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Difference between Republican and Democratic individual refunds (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0)
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Itemized Individual Contributions
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Republican itemized individual contributions
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Itemized Individual Contributions Score
House
F
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Difference between Republican and Democratic itemized individual contributions (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0)
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Loans Made By Candidate
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Republican loans made by candidate
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Loans Made By Candidate Score
House
F
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Difference between Republican and Democratic loans made by candidate (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0)
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP NAOR Oppose
House
T
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Amount spent by NAOR opposing Republican
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP NAOR Support
House
T
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Amount spent by NAOR supporting Republican
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP NRCC Oppose
House
T
Senate
F
President
F
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Amount spent by NRCC opposing Republican
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP NRCC Support
House
T
Senate
F
President
F
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Amount spent by NRCC supporting Republican
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Offsets To Operating Expenditures
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Republican offsets to operating Expenditures
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Offsets To Operating Expenditures Score
House
F
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Difference between Republican and Democratic offsets to operating Expenditures (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0)
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Operating Expenditures
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Republican operating Expenditures
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Operating Expenditures Score
House
F
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Difference between Republican and Democratic operating Expenditures (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0)
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Other Committee Refunds
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Republican other committee refunds
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Other Committee Refunds Score
House
F
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Difference between Republican and Democratic other committee refunds (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0)
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Other Disbursements
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Republican other disbursements
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Other Disbursements Score
House
F
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Difference between Republican and Democratic other disbursements (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0)
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Other Loan Repayments
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Republican other loan repayments
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Other Loan Repayments Score
House
F
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Difference between Republican and Democratic other loan repayments (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0)
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Other Loans
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Republican other loans
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Other Loans Score
House
F
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Difference between Republican and Democratic other loans (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0)
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Other Receipts
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Republican other receipts
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Other Receipts Score
House
F
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Difference between Republican and Democratic other receipts (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0)
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Political Party Refunds
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Republican Party refunds
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Political Party Refunds Score
House
F
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Difference between Republican and Democratic party refunds (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0)
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Quarterly Itemized
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Republican quarterly itemized contributions
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Quarterly Itemized Score
House
F
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Difference between Republican and Democratic quarterly itemized contributions (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0)
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Quarterly Unitemized
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Republican quarterly unitemized contributions
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Quarterly Unitemized Score
House
F
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Difference between Republican and Democratic quarterly unitemized contributions (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0)
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Raised
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Republican total raised
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Raised Score
House
T
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Difference between Republican and Democratic total raised (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0)
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Spent
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Republican total spent
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Spent Ind Support Oppose
House
T
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Republican total spent+Republican independent Expenditures supporting+Democratic independent Expenditures opposing
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Spent Score
House
T
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Difference between Republican and Democratic total spent (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0)
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Total Contribution Refunds
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Republican total contributions and refunds
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Total Contribution Refunds Score
House
F
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Difference between Republican and Democratic total contributions and refunds (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0)
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Total Contributions
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Republican total contributions
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Total Contributions Score
House
F
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Difference between Republican and Democratic total contributions (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0)
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Total Individual Contributions
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Republican total individual contributions
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Total Individual Contributions Score
House
F
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Difference between Republican and Democratic total individual contributions (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0)
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Total Loan Repayments
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Republican total loan repayments
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Total Loan Repayments Score
House
F
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Difference between Republican and Democratic total loan repayments (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0)
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Total Loans Received
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Republican total loans received
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Total Loans Received Score
House
F
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Difference between Republican and Democratic total loans received (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0)
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Transfers From Other Authorized Committees
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Republican transfers from other authorized committees
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Transfers From Other Authorized Committees Score
House
F
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Difference between Republican and Democratic transfers from other authorized committees (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0)
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Transfers To Other Authorized Committees
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Republican transfers to other authorized committees
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Transfers To Other Authorized Committees Score
House
F
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Difference between Republican and Democratic transfers to other authorized committees (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0)
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Unitemized Individual Contributions
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Republican unitemized individual contributions
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Unitemized Individual Contributions Score
House
F
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Difference between Republican and Democratic unitemized individual contributions (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0)
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
HMP Involved
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
HMP spent money T/F
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
HMP Percent
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Percent of spending from HMP
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
NAOR Involved
House
T
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
NAOR spent money T/F
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
NAOR Percent
House
T
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Percent of spending from NAOR
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
NRCC Involved
House
T
Senate
F
President
F
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
NRCC spent money T/F
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
NRCC Percent
House
T
Senate
F
President
F
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Percent of spending from NRCC
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Over 20 Million
House
F
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Indicates whether 20 million total was spent by all candidates combined
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Over 3 Million
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Indicates whether 3 million total was spent by all candidates combined
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Total Money in Race
House
T
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Total money spent by GOP and Dem
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Adjusted PVI
House
T
Senate
T
President
F
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
PVI+national environment
Source
Calculated in-house
Name
Dem Last Vote Count
House
T
Senate
F
President
F
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Democratic vote count from previous cycle (same cd)
Source
Historical election results
Name
Dem Last Vote Percent
House
T
Senate
F
President
F
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Democratic vote percent from previous cycle (same cd)
Source
Historical election results
Name
Dem Num Opponents
House
T
Senate
T
President
F
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Number of opponents in dem primary
Source
Historical election results
Name
Dem Pres Net Approve
House
T
Senate
T
President
F
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Net presidential approval (approval rating-disapproval rating) for Democratic Presidents, coded 0 if opposite party controls Presidency
Source
Gallup
Name
Dem Primary HHI
House
T
Senate
T
President
F
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Herfindahl-Hirschman index (HHI) using vote share distribution in dem primary
Source
Calculated in-house
Name
Dem Vote Count Last3
House
T
Senate
T
President
F
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Democratic vote count from previous 3 cycles
Source
Historical election results
Name
Dem Vote Percent Last3
House
T
Senate
T
President
F
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Democratic vote percent from previous 3 cycles
Source
Historical election results
Name
Generic Ballot National Environment
House
T
Senate
T
President
F
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
15 day average of generic congressional ballot of D vs R; positive values favor R, negative values favor D
Source
RealClearPolitics
Name
GOP Last Vote Count
House
T
Senate
F
President
F
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
GOP vote count from previous cycle (same cd)
Source
Historical election results
Name
GOP Last Vote Percent
House
T
Senate
F
President
F
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
GOP vote Percent from previous cycle (same cd)
Source
Historical election results
Name
GOP Num Opponents
House
T
Senate
T
President
F
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Number of opponents in GOP primary
Source
Historical election results
Name
GOP Pres Net Approve
House
T
Senate
T
President
F
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Net presidential approval (approval rating-disapproval rating) for Republican Presidents, coded 0 if opposite party controls Presidency
Source
Gallup
Name
GOP Primary HHI
House
T
Senate
T
President
F
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
HHI using vote share distribution in GOP primary
Source
Calculated in-house
Name
GOP Vote Count Last3
House
T
Senate
T
President
F
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Republican vote count from previous 3 cycles
Source
Historical election results
Name
GOP Vote Percent Last3
House
T
Senate
T
President
F
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Republican vote percent from previous 3 cycles
Source
Historical election results
Name
Grn Last Vote Percent
House
T
Senate
F
President
F
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Green party vote Percent from previous cycle (same cd)
Source
Historical election results
Name
Ind Last Vote Percent
House
T
Senate
F
President
F
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Independent party vote Percent from previous cycle (same cd)
Source
Historical election results
Name
Last D Pres Percent
House
T
Senate
F
President
F
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Democrat\u2019s share of two-party vote, previous election
Source
Historical election results
Name
Last GOP Percent
House
F
Senate
T
President
F
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Same as "GOP Last Vote Percent" variable, but for the Senate
Source
Historical election results
Name
Lib Last Vote Percent
House
T
Senate
F
President
F
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Libertarian party vote Percent from previous cycle (same cd)
Source
Historical election results
Name
Lib Vote Percent Last3
House
T
Senate
T
President
F
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Libertarian vote percent from previous 3 cycles
Source
Historical election results
Name
Midterm
House
F
Senate
T
President
F
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Midterm election T/F
Source
Historical election results
Name
Of Prespty
House
T
Senate
T
President
F
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
If GOP candidate is of the president's party
Source
Historical election results
Name
Of Prespty By Midterm
House
T
Senate
T
President
F
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
1 = GOP candidate is of sitting president's party and it is a midterm election year, 2 = pres party and presidential election year, 3 = not pres party and midterm, 4 = not pres party and pres year
Source
Calculated in-house
Name
Open Seat
House
T
Senate
T
President
F
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Indicates whether this is an open seat election (current election)
Source
Historical election results
Name
Pres By Midterm
House
F
Senate
T
President
F
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Gives party of sitting president and indicates whether election cycle is midterm (e.g. "R1" if Republican president and midterm election year; "D0" if Democratic president and not a midterm election year)
Source
Calculated in-house
Name
Prespty
House
T
Senate
T
President
F
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Party of current president
Source
Historical election results
Name
Previous Party
House
T
Senate
T
President
F
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Names the party that previously held the seat
Source
Historical election results
Name
Primary HHI
House
T
Senate
T
President
F
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
HHI using primary voters in the dem+GOP primary combined
Source
Calculated in-house
Name
Redistricted
House
T
Senate
F
President
F
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Indicates redistricting since last election
Source
Calculated in-house
Name
Turnout Count Last
House
F
Senate
F
President
F
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Total turnout from previous cycle
Source
Historical election results
Name
Turnout Count Last3
House
T
Senate
T
President
F
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Total voter turnout for last 3 cycles
Source
Historical election results
Name
Unopposed Democrat Last Cycle
House
T
Senate
F
President
F
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Whether dem ran unopposed in previous election
Source
Historical election results
Name
Unopposed Republican Last Cycle
House
T
Senate
F
President
F
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Whether GOP ran unopposed in previous election
Source
Historical election results
Name
Congressional District or Senate Class
House
T
Senate
T
President
F
Factor Category
Structural
Description
Congressional District or Senate Class
Source
Historical election results
Name
Decade
House
T
Senate
F
President
F
Factor Category
Structural
Description
>2010 or <2010
Source
Historical election results
Name
State
House
T
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Structural
Description
State the election is being held in
Source
Historical election results
Name
Unopposed Democrat
House
T
Senate
F
President
F
Factor Category
Structural
Description
Whether dem is unopposed in this election
Source
Historical election results
Name
Unopposed Republican
House
T
Senate
F
President
F
Factor Category
Structural
Description
Whether GOP is unopposed in this election
Source
Historical election results
Name
Year
House
T
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Structural
Description
Calendar year election occurs within
Source
Historical election results
Name
Asian Pct
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Structural
Description
Asian population percent
Source
US Census Bureau
Name
Bachelor’s Degree Pct
House
T
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Structural
Description
Bachelor’s degree percent
Source
US Census Bureau
Name
Black Pct
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Structural
Description
Black population percent
Source
US Census Bureau
Name
CPI
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Economic Factors
Description
Consumer price index
Source
Federal Reserve Economic Data
Name
D 2 Party Pct
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Democratic percentage of two-party vote
Source
Historical election results
Name
D Candidate Ideology
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Traits
Description
Democratic candidate ideology
Source
Database on Ideology, Money in Politics, and Elections
Name
D Consecutive Terms
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Number of consecutive Democratic terms
Source
Historical election results
Name
D Home State
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Traits
Description
Home state of Democratic presidential candidate
Source
Historical election results
Name
D IEM Price
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Closing price for Democratic candidate in winner-take-all market on day before election
Source
Iowa Electronic Markets
Name
D Incumbent Candidate
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Traits
Description
Democratic incumbent running
Source
Historical election results
Name
D Incumbent Party
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Democratic incumbent running
Source
Historical election results
Name
D Overall Pct
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Democratic percentage of overall vote
Source
Historical election results
Name
D President Net Approval
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Net approval rating for Democratic president
Source
The American Presidency Project
Name
D Primary Margin
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Difference in overall primary popular vote percentage between Democratic nominee and closest primary challenger
Source
Historical election results
Name
D VP Home State
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Traits
Description
Home state of Democratic vice presidential candidate
Source
Historical election results
Name
D Win
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Structural
Description
Democratic win
Source
Historical election results
Name
Dem Other Committee Contributions
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Democratic other committee contributions
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Dem Party Committee Contributions
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Democratic party committee contributions
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Effective Federal Funds Rate
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Economic Factors
Description
Effective Federal Funds Rate
Source
Federal Reserve Economic Data
Name
GDP
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Economic Factors
Description
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Source
Federal Reserve Economic Data
Name
GNP
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Economic Factors
Description
Gross National Product (GNP)
Source
Federal Reserve Economic Data
Name
GOP Debts Or Loans Owed By Score
House
T
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Difference between Republican and Democratic debts or loans owed by committee (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0)
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Debts Or Loans Owed To Score
House
F
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Financials
Description
Difference between Republican and Democratic debts or loans owed to committee (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0)
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Other Committee Contributions
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Republican other committee contributions
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Other Committee Contributions Score
House
F
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Difference between Republican and Democratic other committee contributions (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0)
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Party Committee Contributions
House
T
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Republican party committee contributions
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
GOP Party Committee Contributions Score
House
F
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Outside Financials
Description
Difference between Republican and Democratic party committee contributions (larger differences have values approaching 1, smaller differences have values approaching 0)
Source
Federal Election Commission
Name
Hispanic Pct
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Structural
Description
Hispanic population percent
Source
US Census Bureau
Name
Incumbent
House
T
Senate
T
President
F
Factor Category
Candidate Traits
Description
1 = GOP incumbent, 0 = no incumbent, -1 = Dem incumbent
Source
Historical election results
Name
Index of Consumer Sentiment
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Economic Factors
Description
Index of Consumer Sentiment
Source
Federal Reserve Economic Data
Name
Industrial Production Index
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Economic Factors
Description
Industrial Production Index
Source
Federal Reserve Economic Data
Name
Last D 2 Party Pct
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Democratic percentage of two-party vote in previous election
Source
Historical election results
Name
Last D Overall Pct
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Democratic percentage of overall vote in previous election
Source
Historical election results
Name
Last R 2 Party Pct
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Republican percentage of two-party vote in previous election
Source
Historical election results
Name
Last R Overall Pct
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Republican percentage of overall vote in previous election
Source
Historical election results
Name
Median Age
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Structural
Description
Median age
Source
US Census Bureau
Name
NASDAQ
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Economic Factors
Description
NASDAQ Composite
Source
Federal Reserve Economic Data
Name
Non-Farm Pay
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Economic Factors
Description
Nonfarm payrolls
Source
Federal Reserve Economic Data
Name
Nonhispanic White Pct
House
T
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Structural
Description
Non-hispanic white population percent
Source
US Census Bureau
Name
Per Capita Income
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Economic Factors
Description
Per capita personal income
Source
Federal Reserve Economic Data
Name
Personal Consumption Expenditures
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Economic Factors
Description
Personal consumption expenditures
Source
Federal Reserve Economic Data
Name
PVI
House
T
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Cook Partisan Voting Index (positive values are R+, negative are D+)
Source
Calculated in-house based on Cook formula
Name
PVI Adjusted Net Approval
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
PVI minus net approval for Democratic president, plus net approval for Republican president
Source
Calculated in-house
Name
R 2 Party Pct
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Republican percentage of two-party vote
Source
Historical election results
Name
R Candidate Ideology
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Traits
Description
Republican candidate ideology
Source
Database on Ideology, Money in Politics, and Elections
Name
R Consecutive Terms
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Number of consecutive Republican terms
Source
Historical election results
Name
R Home State
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Traits
Description
Home state of Republican presidential candidate
Source
Historical election results
Name
R IEM price
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Closing price for Republican candidate in winner-take-all market on day before election
Source
Iowa Electronic Markets
Name
R Incumbent Candidate
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Traits
Description
Republican incumbent running
Source
Historical election results
Name
R Incumbent Party
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Republican incumbent running
Source
Historical election results
Name
R Overall Pct
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Republican percentage of overall vote
Source
Historical election results
Name
R President Net Approval
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Net approval rating for Republican president
Source
The American Presidency Project
Name
R Primary Margin
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
Difference in overall primary popular vote percentage between Republican nominee and closest primary challenger
Source
Historical election results
Name
R VP Home State
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Candidate Traits
Description
Home state of Republican vice presidential candidate
Source
Historical election results
Name
R Win
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Structural
Description
Republican win
Source
Historical election results
Name
Race ID
House
T
Senate
T
President
T
Factor Category
Structural
Description
Unique identifier reflecting office, year, state, district/class
Source
Name
Real Personal Income
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Economic Factors
Description
Real personal income
Source
Federal Reserve Economic Data
Name
State Ideology
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Political Environment
Description
State/district ideology
Source
American Ideology Project
Name
Urban Pop Density
House
F
Senate
F
President
T
Factor Category
Structural
Description
Percent of population in urban areas
Source
US Census Bureau
