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2024 Presidential Forecast and Predictions

Last Updated: Monday, July 15 at 7:27 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Donald Trump has a 55% chance of winning the Presidency.

Prediction Updates

Last updated on Jul 14 2024 by Decision Desk HQ

Trump maintains lead, likely to shift following assassination attempt

The assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump is likely to have a substantial impact on the Decision Desk HQ 2024 presidential forecast. Although our forecast is updated daily, it will take some time before the full effect of this event is reflected in the polling data.

Currently, Trump holds a narrow advantage in the race to secure 270 electoral votes. However, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin remain toss-ups in our forecast.

Electoral College Forecast

To win the Presidency, a candidate must secure 270 of the 538 available electoral votes, distributed among the 50 states and the District of Columbia according to population. Nebraska and Maine have unique systems: they award two electoral votes to the statewide popular vote winner and distribute the remaining votes according to the winners in each congressional district. This map categorizes states by each candidate’s likelihood of winning, ranging from 'safe' to 'likely' to 'lean' to 'toss-up'.

226

Biden

Trump

235

270 For Election

NM5SD3CA54KY8AL9GA16AR6PA19MO10CO10UT6OK7TN11WY3NY28IN11KS6ID4AK3NV6IL19MN10IA6SC9MT4AZ11NE2WA12TX40OH17WI10OR8MS6NC16VA13WV4LA8MI15FL30ND3ME2HI4 1 1 1 1 1

NE

State

2

CD-1

1

CD-2

1

CD-3

1

ME

2
1
1
CT 7
DE 3
DC 3
MD 10
MA 11
NH 4
NJ 14
RI 4
VT 3

Chance of winning the presidency

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. This graph tracks each candidate’s probability of winning the presidential election over time.

Electoral College Projections

Trump: 278

Biden: 260

This graph tracks each candidate’s projected Electoral College vote share over time.

Chance of winning each state

This chart visualizes the current probabilities of each candidate winning individual states. Circles positioned further to the left indicate a higher likelihood of a Biden victory, while circles to the right suggest a stronger chance for Trump. Use the 'DEM' and 'GOP' filters to view states most likely to support their respective party’s nominee.

Electoral College Simulations

These graphs represent the distribution of outcomes from 14,000,605 simulations of the Electoral College vote for Joe Biden and Donald Trump. The outcomes shaded in lighter colors to the left of the dotted line indicate scenarios where a candidate loses, while those in darker colors to the right of the line represent a win. Each bar shows the percentage of simulations resulting in that specific electoral vote count.

Our model currently projects a 0.4% chance of a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College..

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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