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Biden vs. Trump polls

Trump has a 1.6% lead based on 751 polls.

Jun 25, 2024

Photograph of Trump

Trump

45.5%
Photograph of Biden

Biden

43.9%

Estimate

95% of polls fall in this range

Polling average unskewer

Our 'unskewer' is a way to adjust for whatever bias you think is reflected in the polls. For example, if a Republican candidate is at 44% and a Democrat is at 42%, slide our 'unskewer' 2 point to the left and it will reduce the Republican candidate's margin by 2 points.

Rep. +1.6

Original Avg.

Rep. BiasNo BiasDem. Bias

Rep. +1.6

Adjusted Avg.

Reset

A bit of background... The 2024 national popular vote polling average between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is a significant indicator of the political landscape as the United States gears up for another presidential election. This matchup is a rematch of the 2020 Presidential Election, with Biden seeking to continue his leadership and Trump aiming to reclaim the presidency. Biden defeated Trump in 2020, flipping key states such as Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

751 polls

Latest Poll: Mon, Jun 24, 6:02 AM EDT

Jun 18 – 22

1,878 LV

YouGov/CBS News
50.0%

Trump

49.0%

Biden

+1 Trump

Jun 6 – 22

2,029 LV

ActiVote
51.6%

Trump

48.4%

Biden

+3 Trump

Jun 21

1,000 LV

Rasmussen Reports
49.0%

Trump

40.0%

Biden

+9 Trump

Jun 15 – 18

1,095 RV

Beacon Research/Shaw...
50.0%

Biden

48.0%

Trump

+2 Biden

Jun 15 – 17

10,142 RV

Morning Consult
44.0%

Biden

43.0%

Trump

+1 Biden

Jun 12 – 14

4,000 RV

Morning Consult
43.0%

Trump

43.0%

Biden

TIE

Jun 13

930 RV

Ipsos/Reuters
41.0%

Trump

39.0%

Biden

+2 Trump

Jun 11 – 13

1,184 RV

Marist College Poll/...
49.0%

Trump

49.0%

Biden

TIE

Jun 11 – 13

1,013 LV

Echelon Insights
48.0%

Biden

47.0%

Trump

+1 Biden

Jun 11 – 12

930 RV

Ipsos/Reuters
41.0%

Trump

39.0%

Biden

+2 Trump

+ More Polls

The polling bias for the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections is based on analysis from the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) comparing actual results to national polls. For the 2018 and 2022 elections, bias was measured by comparing FiveThirtyEight's Generic Ballot polling average with the adjusted US House National Popular vote, using data from the UVA Center for Politics (2018) and DecisionDeskHQ (2022).

Donald Trump headshot

Donald Trump

Donald Trump is an American businessman, television personality, and politician who served as the 45th President of the United States from January 2017 to January 2021. Before his presidency, Trump was known for his real estate empire and for hosting the reality TV show, "The Apprentice." His presidency was notable for its non-traditional, often controversial, approach and prioritization of America-first policies. Trump was impeached twice by the House of Representatives, first in 2019 and then in 2021, but was acquitted both times by the Senate.

Joe Biden headshot

Joe Biden

Joe Biden is an American politician and a member of the Democratic Party who is serving as the 46th President of the United States. Before his presidency, he served as Vice President under President Barack Obama from 2009 to 2017. Prior to that, he represented the state of Delaware in the U.S. Senate, holding that seat from 1973 to 2009. Biden's extensive political career has focused on issues such as foreign policy, criminal justice, and civil rights.

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