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Biden vs. Trump vs. RFK Jr. polls

Trump has a 2.4% lead based on 231 polls.

Jul 16, 2024

Photograph of Trump

Trump

42.1%
Photograph of Biden

Biden

39.7%
Photograph of Kennedy

Kennedy

8.0%

Estimate

95% of polls fall in this range

A bit of background... As voters have soured on Joe Biden and Donald Trump over the past four years, many have wondered whether third-party candidates will run stronger than in previous elections. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign introduces a compelling three-way contest against incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. This unique configuration tests the waters of American political allegiance, as voters consider a broader spectrum of options for the country's leadership, similar to in 2016.

231 polls

Latest Poll: Mon, Jul 15, 1:48 PM EDT

Jul 9 – 12

2,300 LV

Noble Predictive Ins...
43.0%

Trump

40.0%

Biden

7.0%

Kennedy

+3 Trump

Jul 10 – 11

1,174 RV

Marist College Poll/...
43.0%

Trump

42.0%

Biden

8.0%

Kennedy

+1 Trump

Jul 8 – 11

1,210 RV

Beacon Research/Shaw...
44.0%

Trump

41.0%

Biden

10.0%

Kennedy

+3 Trump

Jul 8 – 10

800 RV

Hart Research/Public...
40.0%

Trump

37.0%

Biden

10.0%

Kennedy

+3 Trump

Jul 8 – 10

1,440 RV

YouGov/The Economist
43.0%

Trump

40.0%

Biden

4.0%

Kennedy

+3 Trump

Jul 6 – 10

2,041 RV

Ipsos/ABC News/Washi...
43.0%

Trump

42.0%

Biden

9.0%

Kennedy

+1 Trump

Jul 9

1,500 RV

Redfield & Wilton St...
43.0%

Trump

42.0%

Biden

6.0%

Kennedy

+1 Trump

Jul 8 – 9

1,370 RV

Emerson College Poll...
43.7%

Trump

39.9%

Biden

6.1%

Kennedy

+4 Trump

Jul 2 – 8

7,729 RV

Pew Research Center
44.0%

Trump

40.0%

Biden

15.0%

Kennedy

+4 Trump

Jun 29 – Jul 8

4,347 RV

Lord Ashcroft Polls
41.0%

Biden

39.0%

Trump

9.0%

Kennedy

+2 Biden

+ More Polls

The polling bias for the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections is based on analysis from the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) comparing actual results to national polls. For the 2018 and 2022 elections, bias was measured by comparing FiveThirtyEight's Generic Ballot polling average with the adjusted US House National Popular vote, using data from the UVA Center for Politics (2018) and DecisionDeskHQ (2022).

Donald Trump headshot

Donald Trump

Donald Trump is an American businessman, television personality, and politician who served as the 45th President of the United States from January 2017 to January 2021. Before his presidency, Trump was known for his real estate empire and for hosting the reality TV show, "The Apprentice." His presidency was notable for its non-traditional, often controversial, approach and prioritization of America-first policies. Trump was impeached twice by the House of Representatives, first in 2019 and then in 2021, but was acquitted both times by the Senate.

Joe Biden headshot

Joe Biden

Joe Biden is an American politician and a member of the Democratic Party who is serving as the 46th President of the United States. Before his presidency, he served as Vice President under President Barack Obama from 2009 to 2017. Prior to that, he represented the state of Delaware in the U.S. Senate, holding that seat from 1973 to 2009. Biden's extensive political career has focused on issues such as foreign policy, criminal justice, and civil rights.

RFK Jr. headshot

RFK Jr.

RFK Jr., or Robert F. Kennedy Jr., is an American environmental lawyer and activist. As the son of Robert F. Kennedy, former U.S. Attorney General and Senator from New York, and the nephew of President John F. Kennedy, he has a deep-seated connection to American politics. However, he has primarily focused his career on environmental advocacy, co-founding the Waterkeeper Alliance, an organization dedicated to clean water. He has often stirred controversy, particularly with his vocal skepticism towards vaccines.

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