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Generic ballot polls

Republicans have a 0.9% lead based on 453 polls.

Jun 25, 2024

Republican

45.4%

Democrat

44.5%

Estimate

95% of polls fall in this range

Polling average unskewer

Our 'unskewer' is a way to adjust for whatever bias you think is reflected in the polls. For example, if a Republican candidate is at 44% and a Democrat is at 42%, slide our 'unskewer' 2 point to the left and it will reduce the Republican candidate's margin by 2 points.

Rep. +0.9

Original Avg.

Rep. BiasNo BiasDem. Bias

Rep. +0.9

Adjusted Avg.

Reset

A bit of background... The generic ballot serves as a crucial predictor for the battle over control of the US House of Representatives, offering a snapshot of national party preference between Republicans and Democrats. Following a narrow Republican majority win in the 2022 midterms, this gauge provides insights into potential shifts in legislative power. It reflects the natural political environment of the nation as a whole, without considering specific candidates or politicians.

453 polls

Latest Poll: Mon, Jun 24, 6:02 AM EDT

Jun 17 – 19

1,396 RV

YouGov/The Economist
45.0%

Democrat

44.0%

Republican

+1 Democrat

Jun 12 – 14

800 LV

OnMessage Inc./ Sena...
48.0%

Republican

42.0%

Democrat

+6 Republican

Jun 10 – 12

1,399 RV

YouGov/The Economist
44.0%

Democrat

44.0%

Republican

TIE

Jun 7 – 11

1,034 RV

Monmouth University ...
48.0%

Republican

45.0%

Democrat

+3 Republican

Jun 8 – 10

1,423 LV

Big Village
46.8%

Democrat

45.3%

Republican

+2 Democrat

Jun 5 – 7

1,500 LV

Cygnal
45.3%

Republican

45.2%

Democrat

+0 Republican

Jun 4 – 7

1,243 RV

YouGov/Yahoo News
45.0%

Democrat

43.0%

Republican

+2 Democrat

Jun 5 – 6

1,000 RV

Emerson College Poll...
45.3%

Republican

42.9%

Democrat

+2 Republican

Jun 3 – 5

1,565 RV

YouGov/The Economist
45.0%

Democrat

44.0%

Republican

+1 Democrat

May 24 – Jun 4

812 LV

Global Strategy Grou...
50.0%

Democrat

43.0%

Republican

+7 Democrat

+ More Polls

The polling bias for the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections is based on analysis from the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) comparing actual results to national polls. For the 2018 and 2022 elections, bias was measured by comparing FiveThirtyEight's Generic Ballot polling average with the adjusted US House National Popular vote, using data from the UVA Center for Politics (2018) and DecisionDeskHQ (2022).

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