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2024 House Forecast and Predictions

Last Updated: Monday, July 15 at 7:27 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Republicans have a 60% chance of winning the House.

Prediction Updates

Last updated on Jul 14 2024 by Decision Desk HQ

Trump maintains lead, likely to shift following assassination attempt

The assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump is likely to have a substantial impact on the Decision Desk HQ 2024 presidential forecast. Although our forecast is updated daily, it will take some time before the full effect of this event is reflected in the polling data.

Currently, Trump holds a narrow advantage in the race to secure 270 electoral votes. However, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin remain toss-ups in our forecast.

House Seats Forecast

Elections will be held this November for representatives from all 435 congressional districts across the 50 U.S. states. The House Republican Conference, under the leadership of Mike Johnson since October 2023 following Kevin McCarthy's removal, and the Democrats, now led by Hakeem Jeffries instead of Nancy Pelosi for the first time since 2002, are gearing up for a highly competitive race. Although House Republicans fell short of their lofty expectations in 2022, they managed to flip nine seats, securing a majority and the Speaker's gavel. They must now defend this narrow majority against the Democrats, who hold 213 seats—just five seats shy of the 218 needed to regain control. These maps categorize congressional districts by each party’s likelihood of winning, ranging from 'safe' to 'likely' to 'lean' to 'toss-up'.

206

Democrat

Republican

212

218 for Majority

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Chance of winning the house

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. This graph tracks each party’s probability of winning control of the House over time.

House Seats Projections

Republican: 221

Democrat: 214

This graph tracks each party’s projected seat count in the House over time.

Chance of winning each district

This chart visualizes the current probabilities of each party winning individual races. Circles positioned further to the left indicate a higher likelihood of a Democratic victory, while circles to the right suggest a stronger chance for Republicans. Use the 'DEM' and 'GOP' filters to view states most likely to support the respective parties.

House Seats Simulations

These graphs display the distribution of House seat counts from 14,000,605 simulations for both Democrats and Republicans. The lighter shaded areas to the left of the dotted line depict scenarios where a party fails to secure a majority, while the darker shaded areas to the right represent majority-winning outcomes. Each bar indicates the percentage of simulations resulting in a specific seat count.

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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