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2024 Senate Forecast and Predictions

Last Updated: Monday, July 15 at 7:27 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Republicans have a 78% chance of winning the Senate.

Prediction Updates

Last updated on Jul 14 2024 by Decision Desk HQ

Trump maintains lead, likely to shift following assassination attempt

The assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump is likely to have a substantial impact on the Decision Desk HQ 2024 presidential forecast. Although our forecast is updated daily, it will take some time before the full effect of this event is reflected in the polling data.

Currently, Trump holds a narrow advantage in the race to secure 270 electoral votes. However, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin remain toss-ups in our forecast.

Senate Seats Forecast

33 of the 100 U.S. Senate seats will be contested in regular elections this November, along with a special election in Nebraska. Like the last Class 1 Senate cycle in 2018, Republicans are considered to have a fundamental advantage, as Democrats are defending 23 of the 33 seats. Among these, three are in states that Donald Trump won in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, while no Republican-held seats are in states won by Joe Biden in 2020. In the last two Senate elections during presidential years (2016 and 2020), only one senator was elected in a state that the opposing presidential nominee won. This map categorizes states by each party’s likelihood of winning, ranging from 'safe' to 'likely' to 'lean' to 'toss-up'.

47

45

2

Democrat

Republican

51

50 + VP for Majority

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CT
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Chance of winning the senate

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. This graph tracks each party’s probability of winning control of the Senate over time.

Senate Seats Projections

Republican: 52

Democrat: 48

This graph tracks each party’s projected seat count in the Senate over time.

Chance of winning each seat

This chart visualizes the current probabilities of each party winning individual races. Circles positioned further to the left indicate a higher likelihood of a Democratic victory, while circles to the right suggest a stronger chance for Republicans. Use the 'DEM' and 'GOP' filters to view states most likely to support the respective parties.

Senate Seats Simulations

These graphs display the distribution of Senate seat counts from 14,000,605 simulations for both Democrats and Republicans. The lighter shaded areas to the left of the dotted line depict scenarios where a party fails to secure a majority, while the darker shaded areas to the right represent majority-winning outcomes. Each bar indicates the percentage of simulations resulting in a specific seat count.

Our model currently projects a 11.9% chance of a 50-50 tie in the Senate..

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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